I’ve been handloading and bullet casting for about 35 years. :Let me know if you wanna get started…….

I agree with your assessment. The key for regular shooters is to stock up when availability is plentiful to get through the tight times. I did that last fall so I’ve never had to skip practice or a match. Now I buy when I can but only at reasonable prices. So far that has worked for me and I’m really hoping the market will level out and availability will increase. Once it does the price adjustments should follow.

I was lucky to sneak out of Walmart with almost 1000 rounds of .22lr for $30. I had to choose between .22lr and 9mm due to the 3 box limit, but as I have not bought my dream 9mm yet I stuck with the .22lr for the range. The thought did cross my mind to sell my rounds for 3x what I bought them for, though.

I think we will start to see the demand go down in the coming months. Even Academy ’round here has a variety of guns again. Not just Taurus and off-brand guns, but rugers, glocks and sigs.

The ammunition/gun scare is largely based on false demand created by legislation that was a result of the election and Sandy Hook. So we have the government saying they’re going to take it all away, so the initial scare began with people learning how to shoot and then stocking up. However, the real damage came as the vendors who lurk around the gun shows and some of the gun shops realized that they could make a profit off of fear.

The people in line at 7a.m to raid the ammunition restock truck are not the normal working citizens who need ammunition for range shooting or self defense. They aren’t even law enforcement, military or government officials. They’re resellers. So they buy up as much as they can and sell it for 3-5x retail. A round of .22lr goes from $0.04 to $0.25. Then, by securing the available stock coming into the retailers who are not changing their prices because their supply isn’t threatened or limited, they get to set the market value for ammunition.

This then heightens the scare. Oh no! Prices are going up, and no one has ammunition but the gun shows, or this shop over here! Yes, this is true, but it’s simple economic manipulation. If you own the supply, and you have the demand, you can set the market value.

A few ranges down here are trying to be ‘true’ to their range shooters and are saving ammunition for folks shooting there. They are charging 2x retail for .22lr, probably the same for 9mm, but they could charge much more if they made it available to the open market.

I think we all just need to be patient, if we stop buying into the scare then we made it unprofitable. I do call arounds to local stores, check their restock/times and what survived the rush rather than panicking and gobbling up rounds for skyrocketed prices.

And, for what it’s worth, PDHSC sells 1000 rounds of .40 S&W for almost $400. I’ve found 1000 rounds of 9mm online for $550, so switching to .40 isn’t worth it. I’ll pay what I have to pay.

Before this mess began, ammunition manufacturers were at equilibrium with purchasers (including, by the way, DHS). Manufacturers were at full production capacity but keeping pace, with no firm plans to build new plants or expand existing ones. After the Connecticut school shooting, demand skyrocketed and the market took over. Simple economics I’m afraid, with a dose of fear thrown in for good measure.

The shop owner’s firm belief is that it will take at least thirteen to eighteen months for supply to catch up, in part, with demand; over-zealous purchasing will diminish and some manufacturers will figure out how to increase production. But, we will likely never see ammunition prices as low as we have since I began shooting 36 months ago. Some firearms and ammunition manufacturers will expand their plants, but they’re probably going to watch for awhile before investing lots of capital on what might turn out to be a “bubble”.

Any future loosening of supply depends, of course, on the public’s perception (real or imagined) of the sanctity of our Second Amendment right.

Regardless, I choose to keep shooting and spend the money as long as I have it. I have limited my practice time to once a week with a reduced round count, but I have just started to increase my match attendance so it will probably be a wash. I will dry-fire more; that’s always a good thing. But shooting keeps me healthy and I consider that a worthy investment in myself.

Great blog, by the way.